Strong Social Distancing Measures In The United States Reduced The COVID-19 Growth Rate

State and local governments imposed social distancing measures in March and April of 2020 to contain the spread of novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). These included large event bans, school closures, closures of entertainment venues, gyms, bars, and restaurant dining areas, and shelter-in-place orders (SIPOs). We evaluated the impact of these measures on the growth rate of confirmed COVID-19 cases across US counties between March 1, 2020 and April 27, 2020. An event-study design allowed each policy’s impact on COVID-19 case growth to evolve over time. Adoption of government-imposed social distancing measures reduced the daily growth rate by 5.4 percentage points after 1–5 days, 6.8 after 6–10 days, 8.2 after 11–15 days, and 9.1 after 16–20 days. Holding the amount of voluntary social distancing constant, these results imply 10 times greater spread by April 27 without SIPOs (10 million cases) and more than 35 times greater spread without any of the four measures (35 million). Our paper illustrates the potential danger of exponential spread in the absence of interventions, providing relevant information to strategies for restarting economic activity. [Editor’s Note: This Fast Track Ahead Of Print article is the accepted version of the peer-reviewed manuscript. The final edited version will appear in an upcoming issue of Health Affairs.]

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COVID Conversations California, Chile + Germany. Planning issues, questions, and responses

Friday 22, 12:00 pm COVID Conversations: Planning issues, questions, and responses.

Viernes 22, 12:00pm COVID Conversaciones: Problemas urbanos, preguntas y respuestas. California, Alemania y Chile. Paola Alfaro, Diana Benitez, Suzanne Hague, Miguel Angel Vazquez

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Coronavirus Live Updates: Virus Could Be Here to Stay, and Economic Pain Long-Lasting

Jobless claims over the past two months are expected to rise above 35 million. The Fed warned of long-term pain without urgent intervention, and the W.H.O. said the virus “may never go away.”

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New figures are expected to show that more than two million Americans joined the swelling unemployment rolls last week.

www.nytimes.com/2020/05/14/us/coronavirus-updates.html